Progressive Automotive X PRIZE

Progressive Insurance Automotive X PRIZE Responds to HP2g Claims

HP2g put out a release last night claiming withdrawal from the Progressive Insurance Automotive X PRIZE as well as making some unsubstantiated allegations. I’d like an opportunity to set the record straight:

 

As you recall, HP2g was one of over 120 teams that entered the Progressive Insurance Automotive X PRIZE non-binding Letter of Intent program. While Mr. Pelmear states in his release that HP2G voluntarily withdrew from the competition, HP2g actually did not complete the full Registration Application prior to the deadline and was therefore rejected as a Registered Team.

 

Mr. Pelmear claims in his statement that an LOI contender “was allowed to be part of the competition rule setting and ultimate team evaluation process” (italics added for emphasis). As for the former, X PRIZE deliberately sought feedback from a variety of sources in an effort to construct a fair competition incorporating the best industry insight from a wide range of automotive experts. It is true that all teams in fact had the opportunity to provide input... We recorded over 2,000 comments, held a webinar with the LOI Contenders, and reviewed and considered input from every LOI Contender that took the time to contact us. We also held multiple working groups with industry experts to establish the competition guidelines.

 

With regard to the latter accusation levied by Mr. Pelmear, at no point were teams were involved in decisions about rules and procedures. It is very important to note that none of the teams are part of the judging panels for the upcoming Design Judging Phase of the competition nor were any teams part of a competitor evaluation process in the past.  

 

Here are two excerpts from official documents that may prove useful:

From the Letter of Intent itself:

                                                                    

“The Team will receive timely updates on significant competition developments, including the release of draft competition guidelines for public comment.  In addition, while there is no guarantee that the Team’s suggestions will be accepted, the X PRIZE Foundation will provide written responses to all comments and suggestions submitted by the Team in response to the draft competition guidelines.  As well, the Team will have an opportunity to submit additional comments before final competition guidelines are released."

        

From the Competition Guidelines:

 

“We recognize that some contributors may end up competing, or perhaps advising those who compete, but that is an unavoidable result of engaging with so many experts who have real-world knowledge of the automotive industry.  We believe that the Guidelines published here are balanced and credible, and that this would not have been possible without seeking as much feedback as possible from diverse parties, without regard for future possible conflicts.  Had we only sought or accepted input from those unlikely to have a future interest in the competition, the result would have been poor Guidelines.  Our process has been open, and we do not hide our involvement with any party."

                                                                                      

“With the publication of these final Guidelines, we are adopting a strict no-conflict policy.  For example, the Prize Development Advisory Board will be disbanded and we will now appoint a conflict-free Prize Administration Advisory Board."

 

As to his unsubstantiated allegations, I can only say that the Progressive Insurance Automotive X PRIZE has consistently run a highly-public and transparent process in accordance with the highest professional standards of conduct as a fair and honest broker. We wish Horsepower Sales well in the development and sale of their technology and we remain focused on our accepted Registered Teams. We wish them all luck as we move forward to the Design Judging phase of the competition.

Progressive Automotive X PRIZE at The Washington Auto Show

Members of the Progressive Automotive X PRIZE were at The Washington Auto Show at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, D.C. last week.

 

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Deputy Assistant Secretary David E. Rodgers announced the launch of FuelOurFutureNow.com at press event on Tuesday, February 3rd at the Government Technology Theater:

FuelOurFutureNow.com is an online knowledge center created by The DOE, The X PRIZE Foundation, and Discovery Education that is designed to excite K-12 students about energy efficiency. A demo of the website was displayed at the U.S. Government Agencies booth, and web cards were distributed to the general public:

The Green Car Pavilion, hosted by the Green Car Journal, showcased electric, alternative fuel, clean diesel, and advanced technology vehicles. On display was Progressive Automotive X PRIZE Registered Team applicant  Tri-Hybrid:

   

Attendees also had the opportunity to see Progressive Automotive X PRIZE Letter of Intent Contender  HP2g:

   

Be sure to to check out FuelOurFutureNow.com and read the related coverage of the launch, including the announcement in AutoblogGreen. 

Progressive Automotive X PRIZE at 2009 North American International Auto Show

The Progressive Automotive X PRIZE team has just returned from a very productive few days at press days of the North American International Auto Show (NAIAS) in Detroit.

We had a booth in Michigan Hall between the booths of Letter of Intent Contender HP2g and Registered Team applicant Myers Motors:

Much of our time at the show was spent talking to potential entrants into our newly announced Demonstration Division. Key to this outreach is Julie Zona, our new Director of Team Development and Relations. Here is a shot of Julie (right) and me at the show:

As covered in AutoblogGreen, Myers Motors submitted their application to become a Progressive Automotive X PRIZE Registered Team at the show. I took the opportunity to take a seat in a Myers Motors NMG:

We also paid close attention to the various eco-feedback indicators in the new models announced at the show. We are thinking about how to best display the performance of the vehicles in the Progressive Automotive X PRIZE to the public during the competition. Here's one close-up shot of the eco-feedback indicator in the Ford Fusion:

All in all, a great show for the Progressive Automotive X PRIZE. Thanks very much to our own John Shore for the pictures included here.

Not All That Guzzles is Olds

With apologies to Bill Shakespeare for mangling his prose, we'd like to point out to our readers that, just as not all that glitters is gold, not all that is Detroit guzzles gas.  Perhaps unduly dismayed by that icon of fuel profligacy, the Hummer, or perhaps too easily seduced by diesel-sipping Bluetecs from Europe, the greener portion of the American public seems to assume that Detroit must (almost by definition) be the biggest villain in the MPG saga.  Not quite so!  As shown in a recently released GAO report on fuel economy standards, most European OEMs who export to these shores regularly violate CAFE targets, choosing instead to ante up the civil penalties that result.  In fact, the Europeans have enriched the US Treasury by some $115 million between 2001 and 2005 (which are the newest figures GAO has), with BMW leading the way, at over $50 million in fines.  Even the People's Car maker, VW, ponies up a few million bucks every few years to cover its fuel-thirsty Audis (and of course those products of another VW subsidiary, Lamborghini).  One cannot tie the numbers easily to a given model or even to a given year, as Uncle Sam allows all sorts of averaging and carry-forwards and -backs, but over the long haul the biggest offender is Mercedes.  And these numbers don't even count the gas-guzzler tax tacked on at the point of sale: these are civil penalties paid by the OEM for violating the CAFE standards.  The Japanese and Koreans are notably absent from the list, as you might expect, but perhaps as you might not expect, so are the Detroit 3: GM, Ford, and Chrysler have never yet had to pay a CAFE fine.  (They may start having to, according to rumors that they have recently strayed out of compliance, but with the lags in these numbers it is hard to tell.)  So, while the Detroit side may be not be as green as we would like, at least the home team is not just paying off the referees.  As German diesels hit these shores the situation may change, but for now remember that while the Big Three may be making too many V-8s, for a big thirsty V-12 you have to go to Europe...

Of Turbochargers and Tinfoil Hats?

I am both impressed by and grateful to the individual inventor.  The would-be Thomas Edison toils away in lab or garage, working against the odds sometimes for money, but more often for glory and to make the world a better place.  Inventors' interests mirror the concerns of their times: in the Dark Ages the inventor was often an alchemist, seeking to turn lead into gold; in the frenzy of the Industrial Revolution the race was on for ever-more-exotic labor-saving devices, from the sewing machine to the self-propelled harvester combine.  Since the rise of the automobile, therefore, it is not surprising that inventors turn their attention to cars, specifically to the improved power plant.  And indeed, AXP hopes to encourage more and more of these thinkers and tinkerers to come forward and test their concepts on the road with us. 

However, there has always been a dark side to the automotive invention tradition, that of the more paranoid or isolated tinkerer, who is absolutely convinced, much like his (for they are mostly men) forebear the alchemist, that there is a Secret Formula out there which can overthrow the laws of nature and unleash a miraculously efficient new engine concept.  Most often there is an accompanying view that some evil force, most often referred to as "they," is already aware of the Formula, and has acted to suppress it.  (And sometimes this is true!)  Thus the inventor becomes a crusader as well. 

I am in no way poking fun at these engineers and theoreticians: without them we'd probably still be painting on cave walls.  And a misguided initial idea can lead to great things... there is a more than some serendipity and even a little alchemy in the history of inventions such as nylon, penicillin, and even aluminum.  On the other hand, their rate of success is disappointingly low: even in mainstream automotive powertrain development we can point to struggling concepts, such as the Wankel and the Orbital two-stroke, neither of which has lived up to expectations (yet).

Our readers may be unaware that the American government, specifically the EPA, dutifully attempts to test and evaluate the more promising of the MPG-enhancing concepts, although to date the success rate has been pretty close to zero.  For those interested, this page covers dozens of such EPA investigations over the years.  I was stunned to see all this: the breadth and depth of the ideas are staggering.  If AXP can harness even 10% of this energy, maybe brought to a higher level of technical sophistication, we should have no problem delivering to the American public a new range of green vehicle choices.

Report from NAIAS

I'm going to be lazy with my report from the 100th Detroit auto show. Why repeat what's been said so well by another? Joel Makower, one of our treasured advisors, whom we ran into briefly on Sunday, wrote a great wrap-up of the show.

While I think the Chevy Volt was the star of the show, judging by the fact that it was on everybody's lips for the three days we were there, the rest of the show was filled with muscle and the usual low fuel economy numbers. I do like the Honda FCX and may buy it if it's possible to fill it easily. It's, by far, the most appealing and most practical of the near term alternative cars (and I'm a toy junkie). While the BMW hydrogen car is even more attractive, for obvious reasons (no comment on its efficiency or the wisdom of one technology over another--that's not the point here), I don't rank on their list and sadly won't receive one...and Honda has committed to selling these cars in 2008. Maybe we'll get surprised and see other alternatives sooner, but I'm not hopeful.

That said, it was pretty cool to see people clustering around the Volt, with their backs to the Camaro, Corvette and Hummer immediately surrounding it...if only because it represents the large consumer interest in seeing technical and packaging advances towards desirable, super-efficient vehicles brought to market. Whether the Volt will, in fact, be brought to market is depressingly iffy, but I would love to see this car competing when we launch this competition.

Smeed's Law: fatalism and traffic death

I just read a great piece by Freeman Dyson in the most recent MIT Technology Review.

It recounts his WWII experience analyzing bombing data at the RAF Bomber Command. Aside from providing a compelling historical insight, which it most certainly does, in it, he recounts Smeed's Law (Reuben Smeed was his boss), which describes death rates due to traffic accidents in a manner divorced from national differences in safety regulation, road conditions, car design, or any of the other things one would imagine might make a difference in a matter like this.

The equation: the number of deaths equals .0003 times the 2/3 power of the number of people times the 1/3 power of the number of cars. He says it mostly holds true, to within a factor of two, for all countries and all time. After doing the calculation, using 300 million US citizens, 238 million registered vehicles, and some rusty math skills, Smeed's law does, indeed, hold to within a factor of two of American road fatalities. The Smeed equation gives 83,316 deaths and the real number is 43,443 for 2005.

Dyson posits that Smeed's law is saying that the national death rate from traffic accidents is dependent on the psychological constant that any population applies to accident death: above it, they drive more carefully; below it, they drive more recklessly...until they bump up against that psychological barrier and correct again by driving more carefully.

Fascinating.

Remembering Dave Hermance

Many of you will have noted, with great sadness I am sure, Dave's untimely death last week.  It may be some comfort to know that he passed away while doing something he loved, which was flying his Interavia aerobatics plane.  The personal tragedy this represents for his family and friends is grave, of course, and while I knew Dave I did not know him well enough to eulogize in general.  So I will restrict my remarks to what I think Dave meant to one member, at least, of the "green car community," if we can assert the existence of such a group. 

Dave's job in recent years was to assist his employer, Toyota, to adapt the Prius (and other Toyota hybrids) for the North American market, to launch them here, and to answer the numerous technical and commercial questions so many of us had about the cars.  His technical expertise was broad and deep, but what always stuck in my mind after speaking with Dave, or while hearing him talk at numerous industry meetings, was how patient and unflappable he was.  Critiques of the Prius have always included challenges to its MPG claims, its true environmental impact, the depth of its customer appeal, etc. -- and Dave handled these issues well.  But he also dealt stoically and diplomatically with assaults that I know would have driven me around the bend: that the whole thing was just cynical Toyota marketing, that the vehicle's high voltages would kill EMS workers responding to a crash, or that Toyota was duping drivers into buying the cars so they could "stick them" with a $6,000 replacement battery fee years later.

In response to all these arguments, Dave quietly and convincingly returned to the fact base, to what Toyota and its cars were actually achieving in the lab and in the real world, thus adroitly disarming the more zealous (and usually less informed) denizens of the blogosphere.  His achievements were many, but for this one alone, for his calm insistence on the facts, I will miss him greatly.  The "green car community" suffers from an excess of assertions and a shortage of reasoned opinions: in losing Dave we have lost one of our more reasonable, informed, consistent, and insightful voices.

Smaller is Getting Safer

In a post a few months ago (Is Bigger Really Safer?), I pointed out that drivers of lightweight racecars routinely walk away from 200 mph crashes, and that occupants of sport utilities and pickups actually have a higher death rate than car occupants. 

Today's New York Times has a special section on cars (registration required) that focuses on small cars, and it leads with an article (Small-Car Nation) that focuses on their growing popularity -- indeed, small cars this year are outselling SUV's. 

Another article addresses safety; although the physics of collisions does favor larger cars, smaller cars are getting safer because more design effort and more safety features are going into them.   A related development is an automaker initiative to reduce the dangers to small car occupants by making vehicles of different sizes more compatible in crashes (e.g., by making front-end heights more uniform so that large cars don't ride up and crush small cars). 

Obviously weight matters, but so does design.

Moreover, there's a larger perspective.  As our Advisor and guest blogger S.M. Shahed often points out to us (and I hope will soon detail in a blog post), it's not occupant safety that counts (or should count) -- it's total safety.  It's not car damage, it's total damage.  When a big SUV plows into a crowd or a store, the SUV and its occupants might be fine, but lots of people and things won't be.   So one can argue that small cars are not just getting safer for their occupants, they are in fact safer for all of us.   And that's just physics too. 

We'll Always Have Paris

Yr hmbl srvnt is just back from the Paris Auto Show (a nasty job but somebody etc. etc. ... I did buy a TerraPass at least!) and is happy to report on aspects of the Show that might be relevant to AXP. 

Paris is not a "major" show (those are Tokyo, Frankfurt, Detroit, and Geneva) so it tends not to get new product launches from makes other than home-town boys Renault and PSA, but it is always interesting and well-done.  The Paris theme I would say from an AXP angle is: schizophrenia.

On the one hand Europe is the epitome of automotive excess: ALL of the world's gas-gulping V-12s are made here.  European luxury brands such as Mercedes, BMW, and the ultra-ultra firms like Lamborghini and Ferrari have been in violation of the USA CAFE rules ever since they were put in place.  Collectively they have paid over half a billion dollars in fines to Uncle Sam over the years: so your S-Class purchase goes in part to paying down the national debt I guess. 

On the other hand, Europe produces some of the most fuel-frugal vehicles on the planet, from the tiny smart (remember, no capital "S") to the VW Lupo and other so-called A-class cars.  More intriguingly from an AXP perspective may be the European voiturette class.  This is a category of small car mostly derived from French rules but drivable across Europe, designed for short trips and non-highway local use.  Check out for example the Ligier ...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

and (though it is technically not a voiturette) the 55-HP Fiat Panda.  These little beasts get excellent fuel economy (often well over 50 mpg), without the use of exotic technology, and at low cost, since they are not designed to take on the stresses of high speed and heavy payloads.  This concept is alien to the States, where while we allow small carlike vehicles (mostly upgraded golf carts: see GEM) to tootle around gated communities and other close-in neighborhoods, we really limit by keeping them away from main thoroughfares (admittedly for safety reasons).  It may very well be time for a change in this setup, however, and indeed the AXP City class is intended to stimulate experimentation in and experience with this segment.  The point is, one can save fuel not just by making a big car more efficient (e.g. Prius) but by making smaller cars.  An unsettling idea in the land of the Big Gulp and the Supersize, but maybe the time has come.

(PS: Japan has a similar category of car, the so-called kei class.  This includes one of my all-time favorite designs, the Daihatsu Copen, which makes a Miata look gargantuan, and which I'd buy in bulk at Costco if I could!)